BIG MARLEY’S UFC 226 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
There is a lot of cash to be won this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k in the main tournament. I will be going heavier than normal this week following the significant GPP prizes, and that I will play less cash games than usual. This is the first time we’ve seen a 30k top prize so I think it’s worth chasing in the event that you’ve got the bankroll for it.
We did lose the co-main occasion with Max Holloway pulling out of the fight against Brian Ortega, thus we’re now down to 11 fights and we ought to observe a lot of ties on this card together with the popular lineups. If you’re pursuing that $30K then you’ll want to try and be a little different with your lineup so you can separate yourself from the remainder of the area. That said, let us get into a few plays I like as well as my fade of the week.
Money Game play of the week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing with this fight is far off from the gambling line. On DK, Felder is $1,400 less than his opponent, Mike Perry. On the betting line, Felder is your -150 favorite. That’s just too much line worth to pass in cash games and that makes Felder the”free square” this week. Even when he loses this battle, he should be so highly owned that it won’t even damage your lineup in money games. In GPP’s, Felder will be among the highest owned fighters on the card and when he loses there then it may kill your lineup, so maybe consider avoiding the chalk there in the event that you can. However, with that crazy line value we are getting here, Paul Felder is the easy pick for the money game play of this week.
GPP play of this week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this seems a bit weird because I just picked Paul Felder as my cash play of the week, but hear me out. In cash games, we do not care about possession. If Felder is 90% owned in money games, then it doesn’t damage your lineup because only 10 percent of lineups did not possess him and you merely need to be top ~50% of the area to cash in money games. In GPPs, I am imagining Felder will probably be over 50% possessed. If he loses, that is half of the field that is dead with no chance at winning 1st location.
Mike Perry on the other hand will probably be less than 20% owned, and maybe closer to 10% just because of this mispriced line. If Felder loses and kills off 50 percent of lineups, then you also get a win with the low owned man to set you at a much better location of a solo 1st place win and maybe hitting $30k. Perry has the capability to KO anyone and Paul Felder is carrying this fight on short notice in a weight class above his division. Can it truly shock you much if Perry could KO him in this battle? In GPPs, we are interested in finding that boom or bust drama and that’s Mike Perry this week which makes him my GPP drama of this week.
Underdog drama of the week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis would have been a -500 favored over Michael Chiesa if this fight happened 5 decades ago, but today we get a fading Pettis as a underdog and $1,000 less costly than Chiesa on DraftKings. I think Pettis can continue to keep this battle standing for many the fight and that will give him a big advantage. He’s also dangerous on the floor himself and if he is taken I believe he will have the ability to get up if he isn’t able to get a submission of his very own. In case Pettis can acquire a decision then I presume he will pay off his DK cost and will be a good underdog to use so you can save salary in your lineups. I can even find this fight ending from Pettis dropping Chiesa using a body kick and if this happens he will likely be on the winning lineup when he could make it happen in round 1.
Fade of the week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I do think he wins the fight, but I do not find him paying off that large price tag. He does not fight at a hefty rate and he hasn’t gotten a takedown in his past 4 wins as well as the ground is where he will have his main edge in this matchup. In those last 4 wins, Assuncao has not scored over 78 DK points and at his wages this week I need at least 91 points from him to cover that much. I’d rather cover the guys higher priced compared to Assuncao, or even go down to Vannata or Miocic. I will have at least 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will be in 0 of these, which makes him my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
http://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks
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