BIG MARLEY’S UFC FIGHT NIGHT 141 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card in Beijing, China. The tournaments are a lot smaller on DraftKings this week, so I believe that it’s a good week to concentrate more on cash games. The most important GPP is an $8 entrance that pays $10K to 1st place. That’s the best one to pursue in my view. I will have a couple LUs that I placed into a great deal of GPPs hoping I will win them all, but I won’t have many LUs in total this week. Other than that, most of my play with this week will probably be in the cash games. Mostly H2Hs. That said, here are a couple of plays I enjoy for UFC Beijing, in addition to my fade of the week.
Money Game play of the week — Song Yadong ($9,100)
I believe Song Yadong could be the best drama on the card that weekend and you will find 4 fighters priced higher than him. Yadong is a -500 favored on Saturday and I believe this is a fight the UFC is wanting him to win in his home nation. I believe in tournaments, Yadong will be the highest owned fighter on the card with 3 women fighters priced above him, with much smaller odds of winning ITD. I think you may make a situation to fade him because of his possession in GPPs, but in money games we don’t care about possession. I think that this is a great spot to lock in a triumph and possibly ~100-points, and then try to find 3 more wins that we can afford. More often than not 4 wins gets the work done in cash games.
GPP play of the week — Rashad Coulter ($8,400)
This fight has the 2nd highest FDGTD lineup on the card at -400. There’s also worth on Hu Yaozong together with him being $600 cheaper and the gambling line being nearly even. Normally when there is worth like that on an underdog it makes them among the more popular fighters on the card. I don’t think either of these men are UFC level fighters, but I’m a little more impressed with what I’ve observed from Coulter compared to the inexperienced Yaozong. I think getting Coulter in GPP lineups at a lower ownership than Yaozong makes sense this weekend at a fight that should not move all 3-rounds. If both of those guys get an early finish they will likely be about the winning lineup. I am imagining Coulter will be the reduced owned guy of both and that’s what makes him my GPP play of this week.
Underdog drama of this week — Francis Ngannou ($7,500)
There really aren’t many underdogs I like to aim this week to get UFC Beijing. I have not loved creating lineups this week because I hate plugging in two underdogs once I think virtually every favorite will get a win. I believe that the best underdog to target this week is Francis Ngannou because he has a very clear route to victory and he has already won in this matchup before. The path to success for Ngannou is by knockout, and he has got the ability in order to KO anyone on Earth. If he can find a KO at $7.5k then he likely ends upon the 1st spot lineup, especially if it is an early KO. From the first battle between both of these men Blaydes managed to get 2 takedowns, but Ngannou managed to get up pretty quickly each time. If he’s able to end up like that here, I really don’t find any way Blaydes will have the aerobic to attempt and wrestle for 5-rounds. I believe Ngannou is the scarier man on the toes and I don’t see Blaydes wanting to strike for extended amounts of time. I think Ngannou is live for an upset here but on a cardI don’t enjoy many underdogs I believe he is the best you to target with his 1st round KO upsidedown. Fade of this week — Lauren Mueller ($9,200)
I truly don’t like targeting at least one of these women in the $9k selection. I believe they should all get wins, but I do not see any of them becoming 10x their salary. For Mueller, she would need at least 92 DK points to hit 10x and that I believe she’s to get a conclusion to make that occur. Mueller has 5 wins her MMA album and only 1 of those wins didn’t go to conclusion. She also only scored 72 DK points in her 1 UFC win. If she scores 72 at $9.2k then she won’t be winning anybody a tournament. In addition, I think Zhang and Xiaonan have better odds of winning compared to Mueller does so that’s the reason why I picked her over both as my fade of the week. I won’t be making a great deal of lineups this week however if I had been making 20 lineups then Mueller would be on among them.
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